lunes, 8 de junio de 2015

Mexican Elections

Sunday was Election Day in Mexico. It wasn't a presidential election, rather an election for 9 governors (there are 31 states in Mexico), some members of Congress, and local district elections. It is very similar to the US in that there is a rotating election cycle for a portion of the seats in Congress and state governors. One of the surprising things for me is that the sale of alcohol was banned all weekend. The idea being, I suppose, that people vote better when they are sober. My main problems with this are a) if someone really wanted to drink they would just buy booze on Saturday and b) if someone doesn't have the self-control to not drink, would they really be the type of person that would vote in the first place? Anyway, no booze this weekend including bars during the Champions League Final!!

Below are the results of the two most important districts in Mexico City: Benito Juarez and Cuauhtémoc. You can see how differently the two districts vote despite the fact that they are in the same city and are adjacent to one another.

Benito Juarez: This district has the highest standard of living in Mexico City and is on par with Europe in terms living standards. The party who won is PAN, a conservative party whose main objective is to fight corruption. Although, many would say that PAN is just as corrupt as the other two main parties the PRD and PRI. I live in Benito Juarez.

Cuauhtémoc: This is the district that includes the Centro Historico, Condesa, and Roma. Although parts of Cuauhtémoc are much nicer than Benito Juarez, this district also include very modest / poor neighborhoods. Almost all the other Fulbrights live in this district. The party that won is called Morena. This party is an offshoot of the PRD after there was a disagreement between politicians. Both PRD and Morena are left-leaning parties. In general the PRD has controlled Mexico City.

Outside of Mexico City the big news is that for the first time in Mexican History a governor was elected with no party affiliation. Jamie Rodriguez, the "Bronco", of Nuevo Leon was elected over the big parties: PRI, PAN, and PRD. Apparently the business leaders in Nuevo Leon were frustrated with the leading parties and funded their own independent candidate.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/09/world/americas/el-bronco-jaime-rodriguez-calderon-governors-race-nuevo-leon.html?ref=americas&_r=0

This could be a big deal if more independent politicians emerge. Most Mexicans are extremely frustrated with the 3 main political parties and see elections as voting for the least bad party. It reminds me of the Simpsons when the planet is taken over by aliens and they hold an election between the two alien leaders- Kang (Republican) and Kodos (Democrat). Homer suggests, "Well why don't I just vote for a third independent candidate?" To which the aliens reply:
So the idea that independent candidates can win could be a game changer in future elections if the currently ruling parties don't impress citizens. 

On a national level, the elections were kind of blah. Mexico has mostly been governed by the PRI. All the presidents have been PRI except for Vincente Fox (PAN) 2000 - 2006 and Felipe Calderon (PAN) 2006 - 2012. The current president Enrique Peña Nieto is PRI and many thought his party would be punished at the polls as a result of the missing 43 students, and Casa Blanca scandal, which I have mentioned in previous posts. However, the PRI retained its majority in Congress and won the majority of the governor races. Many analysts are saying that this has less to do with PRI, and more to do with voters being unimpressed by the alternatives: PAN and PRD. 

There was some shoddy business going on during the election. The New York times reported on the PRI giving away "free TVs" just before elections. The government claimed that this was part of the government's plan to move the nation towards digitized TVs away from analog, but the timing seems very suspect. The New York Times writes:
The campaign gifts are illegal in most cases, but subjected to fines or other sanctions only after complaints are lodged with the Electoral Institute. Because all the parties break the law, such complaints are rare.
Also, during the elections 5 candidates were assassinated. I am wondering whether the Bronco will be assassinated during his first term. But I guess this is Latin American politics. The United States has its fair share of election woes so it's hard to judge. At least the Mexican election buzz only started about 3 months before the election. That seems reasonable. In the US we are in a constant election cycle. We are obsessed and have been for months with the November 2016 election and that is 18 months away!

In other news, the training for the STP is going well, although still don't have access to a non-stationary bike.

Update: Just found an amazing graph that shows the voter demographics by sex, age, and education level for each of the parties. What the graph shows is that PRI, the party in power, is incentivized to keep voters as uneducated as possible, because that is their best demographic. The PAN is the conservative party and you can see that all of the educated voters vote for them, probably because they are richer.

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